Market Predictions

Site to launch in 2008. For now here are some interesting sites to look at for why I think this would be a fun site idea:

Intrade
WeatherBill - bet on the weather
general trends
Overcoming Bias - see also their posts on presidential markets and
- shock response markets - Shock response futures could trade long before the election, giving voters early non-partisan estimates of how large a change in outcome X would be caused by electing a candidate. This estimate would not need to be corrected for other influences on X; speculators would average over other influences in producing their shock response market estimate. Pick your favorite outcome: unemployment, war casualties, GDP, infant mortality, Roe v. Wade reversal, whatever, shock response futures could cut through the bull to tell voters clearly which candidates would cause which outcomes.
- antidepressant publication bias
Peter McCluskey - his blog
Google's predictive markets - research paper [PDF] and an earlier blog post by Google
the decreasing effectiveness of advertising
- Clickz article
- If content is the new advertising
- half of all searchers don't trust search results
- the growth of paid content in saturated free markets - read the companion report
- viral marketing for the real world
the creation of shifty content
- the great failure of wikipedia
- fake profile alert
users as editors
- cumulative advantage
hardware commoditization
- Nick Carr interview - Cheap power delivered over a universal grid revolutionized the processing of physical materials. Cheap computing delivered over a universal grid is revolutionizing the processing of informational or intellectual goods. That's why we're seeing such upheaval in traditional media businesses – upheaval that will spread to other sectors of the economy as more products and processes are digitized. We're entering a new and even more disruptive era of computerization.
- SmugMug post
- plenty of fish server upgrade and success story
- Encyclopedia salesmen hate wikipedia